PGA Championship First Round News & Notes

Golf Betting Lines

08/10/2007 - Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The talk of Southern Hills, other than a surprising round from John Daly and the question of will Tiger Woods win a major in 2007, was the heat.

With temperatures in the mid-90s most of the day and the dreaded heat index easily eclipsing 100, the searing heat took its toll on every single player in the field.

The temperature did get over 100 degrees late in the day.

"It's warmer than Florida but nowhere near as humid, which is nice," said Woods. "That's one of the reasons why you run all those miles out here in the heat and stay in decent shape."

Tell that to Daly, who admitted to drinking absolutely no water on Thursday. He's more likely to be seen with a diet Coke in one hand and a Marlboro in the other and certainly does not resemble Woods in the waist department.

"I light up a cigarette and drink some caffeine and it actually works," said Daly. "It does bother me but I'm used to it, let's put it that way. Only had three heat strokes out there."

While most acknowledged the heat and humidity after the round, not all believed it played that big of a role.

"It is definitely warm, but we play in hot conditions a lot of the time," said Ernie Els. "I think this is a bit extreme. I don't think it's affecting the guys too much."

ANOTHER MAJOR TRY

When last we saw Sergio Garcia in a major championship, he missed a 20-foot birdie putt on the fourth and final playoff hole to give Padraig Harrington the British Open Championship.

The Spaniard had a shot to go wire-to-wire at Carnoustie, but missed a six- foot par putt on the 72nd hole. Harrington overcame going in the burn twice on that same hole to prevail in the playoff, and afterwards Garcia blamed almost everyone.

He was unhappy with the raker in the group ahead on the final hole. Garcia claimed he had to play against more than the field and that sometimes others get breaks he does not.

While he did not entirely back off the statement this week, he played well.

Garcia birdied three in a row from the 11th, his second hole. He dropped a shot at 17, but it was a pair of bogeys in his final two holes that gave him an even-par 70.

"It's just a shame, those last two bogeys on the last two," said Garcia. "But overall, not a bad round. I got off to a great start and could have been easily four- or five-under through seven."

And is Carnoustie and the final-round press conference/blame session over?

"I think the British, even though I didn't win, it's going to be good for me in the future, just getting in that position and holding the lead for three days at the biggest tournament we have," he said. "So that definitely is going to help me throughout my career."

THE ACTUAL WINNER

Harrington posted a one-under 69 on Thursday and is one of a handful of players under par at Southern Hills.

"I'm in good position," he said. "But it's how I play the next three rounds. That will have no bearing on whether I win the tournament or not."

Harrington reached two-under par with a 20-foot birdie putt at the 15th, his third birdie in a row. At the 17th, Harrington missed the green, then could not save par.

Still, the last major champion on tour is only four off the lead and what he learned at Carnoustie could prove invaluable since Harrington, Daly and Geoff Ogilvy are the only players under par who have won major championships.

"You feel like you've won one, you can win two; you can move on from that," said Harrington. "So there's a certain level of confidence. And I also feel that there's a certain level of adrenaline coming on from having won in a certain level and a certain high from it.

"I haven't hit a wall as of yet. That may happen in time, but at the moment I'm knocking it down well and I'm working hard, working through it."

* Reigning U.S. Open champion Angel Cabrera made a complete mess of the par- three sixth. He hit two out of bounds and one in the water but when he missed a seven-footer, Cabrera walked off with a 10 and immediately fell out of contention.

* Jim Furyk withdrew from last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with a back injury. He played on Thursday, but struggled to a five-over-par 75 and did not say the back was an issue in round one.

* Jyoti Randhawa and Anthony Wall both withdrew due to illness.

* Senior PGA Champion Denis Watson got an invitation to play this week and made the most of it on Thursday. He posted a four-over-par 74 and is tied for 70th place.

* The low Club Professional in the first round was Brad Lardon, the PGA Director of Golf at Miramont Country Club in Bryan, Texas. He shot an even-par 70 and is tied for 13th place.

* The easiest hole Thursday was the par-five 13th, which played to an average of 4.70 shots.

* The most difficult hole in round one was the par-four 18th. The closing hole played to an average of 4.49.

Icvholdings Golf Betting News

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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