Suddenly-slumping Senators to host rival Leafs

Hockey Betting Lines

03/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators will try to get back in the win column tonight, when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs in a battle between Northeast Division foes at Scotiabank Place.

The Senators have 76 points and are one back of Buffalo for the Northeast Division lead. However, Ottawa has been dealt two straight 4-1 losses since the NHL has emerged from its Olympic break. The club had won 14 out of 16 heading into the hiatus.

Ottawa was dealt a loss by the visiting New York Rangers on Tuesday and then dropped Thursday's decision at Carolina. Manny Legace made 25 saves, helping the red-hot Hurricanes stretch their season-high win streak to seven games in the 4-1 victory.

Senators goaltender Pascal Leclaire gave up two goals on five shots in the first 6:23 of the game before being pulled. Brian Elliott made 14 saves the rest of the way for Ottawa.

"We needed a shake up, but we needed him to be better as well," said Ottawa head coach Cory Clouston of Leclaire.

The Senators have a superb 23-9-3 record as the host this year and had won seven straight on home ice prior to Tuesday's loss against the Rangers. Ottawa will begin a three-game road trip Tuesday in Edmonton.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs, who are last in the Eastern Conference, have lost four straight, including two in a row since returning from the Olympic break.

Toronto was able to record a point its last time out, dropping a 3-2 shootout decision Thursday night in Boston. Miroslav Satan opened the scoring in the first period and recorded the lone goal in the shootout for the Bruins.

Satan beat Maple Leafs goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere on a nifty deke to the backhand in the third round of the extra segment. Boston netminder Tim Thomas, meanwhile, turned away the trio of Phil Kessel, Jamie Lundmark and Tyler Bozak, who tied the game six minutes into the third period, during the shootout.

Viktor Stalberg had the other goal for Toronto, while Giguere stopped 29 shots.

"I couldn't ask for more from the guys. We had some great chances," said Leafs coach Ron Wilson. " I tip my hat to Tim Thomas, he made some huge saves for them,"

Toronto is just 2-8-3 in its last 13 games overall and has lost seven straight on the road. The Leafs have a dismal 8-18-7 record as the guest this season.

These teams have split four previous matchups this season, with the Senators posting a 3-2 win on November 17 in the lone meeting held in Ottawa. Toronto has lost two straight, three of four and six of its last nine in Canada's capital city.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.