Tigers go for a road win against Price

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been over a month since the Detroit Tigers last won a game on the road. A matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays and David Price doesn't seem to bode well for the struggling club's chances of ending that drought.

Price will attempt to become the American League's first 14-game winner when he takes the mound this afternoon for the Rays, who'll be aiming for a series sweep of the fading Tigers when these teams square off again at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay has taken the first three bouts of this set and dealt Detroit a ninth consecutive road defeat with Wednesday's 7-4 decision. The losing streak is the Tigers' longest in away games since the club dropped 10 in a row from September 16-October 2, 2005.

The Rays, on the other hand, have now won five straight contests and kept pace with the New York Yankees in the race for first place in the AL East as well as the best overall record in baseball. Tampa improved to 62-38 on the year, two games back of the Yankees for the top spot.

Tampa Bay used a 14-hit attack to prevail last night, with Evan Longoria breaking out of an 0-for-18 skid with a 3-for-4 performance at the plate that included a two-run homer. Carlos Pena added an RBI single and ended 2-for-3 on the evening.

The Rays scored five times over the first four innings to help Jeff Niemann (9-3) record his ninth win of the season. The towering right-hander labored through six innings and allowed four runs on eight hits, two of which were homers.

"It's nice to get a win on a night when we probably didn't deserve one," Niemann said. "The defense and offense really helped me out [Wednesday]."

Eddie Bonine (4-1), making his first start of 2010, took the loss for Detroit after being tagged for five runs and eight hits before being removed after 3 1/3 innings.

Johnny Damon went 2-for-4 with a homer and two RBI in the Tigers' latest loss, while Miguel Cabrera came through with a solo shot off Niemann in the top of the sixth.

Detroit has now lost 12 of its last 15 tests and has fallen five games behind front-running Chicago in the AL Central standings. A lack of offense has been one reason for the Tigers' woes, as the team has averaged a mere 2.9 runs per game over that poor stretch.

The Tigers did make a move towards trying to bolster their injury-plagued lineup on Wednesday, acquiring infielder Jhonny Peralta from Cleveland in exchange for minor-league pitcher Giovanni Soto. The 28-year-old is expected to serve as Detroit's third baseman with Brandon Inge likely sidelined for at least another month with a fractured finger.

Tampa Bay will probably sit out two regulars this afternoon, with center fielder B.J. Upton slated to miss a second straight game with a sprained ankle and right fielder Ben Zobrist bothered by a sore back that forced him to leave Wednesday's win after just three innings.

The Rays will have a healthy Price, who enters today's tilt with a glossy 13-5 record and 2.90 earned run average in 19 starts and is presently tied with the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia and Minnesota's Carl Pavano for the AL lead in wins. The 2010 All-Star Game starter has been even more impressive at home, where he boasts a 6-1 mark along with a splendid 2.04 ERA and has held the opposition to a .200 average this season.

The 2007 No. 1 overall pick has won his last three starts at Tropicana Field, but his most recent victory came on the road this past Saturday. Facing the Cleveland Indians, Price allowed three runs and just three hits over seven innings to help the Rays post a 6-3 decision.

Price also performed well in his only previous start against the Tigers, firing 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball to pick up a win at Comerica Park on August 29 of last season.

Detroit will send out another member of that 2007 first-round class in the finale, with youngster Rick Porcello getting the call for the visitors. The Tigers sophomore hasn't achieved nearly the degree of success Price has this season, however, nor has he been able to build off a very promising rookie campaign of 2009.

A 14-game winner as a 20-year-old last season, Porcello has slipped to a 4-8 record and produced a subpar 5.55 ERA in 15 starts thus far in 2010. Those struggles earned the right-hander a brief banishment to the minors in mid- June, but he's pitched better since returning after the All-Star break.

Porcello yielded just one run and walked none over eight strong innings during a no-decision at Cleveland on July 17, then surrendered three runs in six frames in a home defeat to Toronto on Saturday. It was the fourth straight losing decision for the New Jersey native, who hasn't won in the majors since May 23.

Porcello was sharp in his lone career start versus Tampa Bay, permitting just one run through 5 2/3 innings in a win at Comerica Park last August.

Prior to taking the first three games of this series, the Rays had lost in eight of their last 11 meetings with Detroit. The Tigers swept a three-game set in their lone trip to Tropicana Field last season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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